Sorry, I seem to have written a War and Peace novel ...
Returning to normal anytime soon (or even by Christmas) is a pipe dream. Those who think/say that are deluded at best. More likely, it's political spinning or /gasp ... deliberate misinformation.
A pandemic doesn't go away until a large percent of the population have been sick and recovered or died or have been inoculated against the virus.
With SARS, which is caused by the SARS-CoV virus, people were generally not infectious until a week after becoming sick, they became sick quickly and obviously, and they were easily identified and quarantined. COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is closely related to the SARS-CoV virus. However, unlike SARS, people infected by COVID-19 are contagious days before any symptoms appear. As many as 50% may never experience a fever or any other symptoms. This makes it difficult to isolate infected people. Temperature checks, which many businesses have implemented, aren't very effective when people are contagious before they ever have a fever or they never develop a fever.
All this makes it essential we wear masks when among those we don't live with, wash hands frequently, limit exposure to others, and do social distancing for another year or more. At least ... until a safe and effective vaccine is widely available and most of the population has been vaccinated.
Contact tracing is proving to be difficult here and elsewhere because people either don't know who they came in contact with (block/beach parties for example) or are not cooperative. Testing in my area still mostly requires we be referred by a doctor and have symptoms or know we have been exposed. If the test is positive, it's taking 7 days or more to get results from two national labs, which do about a quarter of the tests in Philadelphia.
How this all has and will play out is right there in the history books. All anyone has to do is read about the 2018 Pandemic ... specifically how cities like Philadelphia responded to (or ignored) the Pandemic once it hit the city. Rather than cancel the Liberty Loan Parade as other cities did, Philadelphia held it .. a week after 600 sailors had become ill with the H1N1 virus. How shocking that Philadelphia was one of the hardest hit cities in the US.
The parallels between the 1918 pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic are scarily similar. Especially, as we
should know better this time around and countries, including the US, have been preparing for decades for another devastating pandemic ... but
still ... the same mistakes are being made.
CDC
timeline of the 1918 Pandemic
- March 1918 - The first outbreak detected in the US
The outbreak in Spain in May 1918 resulted in the flu being named the Spanish Flu. Because of Spain's neutrality in WWI, the journalism coverage of the H1N1 outbreak was more extensive. Reports and coverage of the outbreaks in the US and other countries were discouraged. It wasn't until decades later that the public learned the first outbreak was months before in the US.
- September 1918 - The second wave hit Boston. Between September and November, the second wave, which was highly fatal, peaked in the United States. The second wave was responsible for most of the deaths attributed to the pandemic.
November 1918 was the end of WWI, which resulted in Armistice Day celebrations and soldiers coming home.
- Winter and Spring 1919 - A third wave occurred, killing many more. Third wave subsides in the summer.
- While the CDC timeline doesn't note the end of the Pandemic, other sources note December 2020 is recognized as the end of the Pandemic.
By December 2020, one third of the world's population had been infected. As of March 2020, the world population is estimated to be 7.8 billion people. Currently over 14.2 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Without a vaccine, one third of the world's population, or 2.6 million people, could be expected to be infected before the Pandemic would end.
With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings,
which were applied unevenly. Just as we have seen with COVID-19.
Interestingly enough, the
United States led the world in mask wearing with the 1918 pandemic. San Francisco passed the Influenza Mask Ordinance in October 1918 which mandated the wearing of masks when outdoors. Other cities and states followed suit, with the result that being found outdoors without a mask could result in a fine up to $100 or imprisonment.
We now have antibiotics to treat the secondary bacterial infections, but just like the 1918 H1N1, COVID-19 is highly infectious. We may or may not have a vaccine by December or January (more likely later than that), but it would take months before enough of the population is vaccinated. That is ... if enough people get vaccinated. If someone refuses to wear a mask or to practice social distancing ... would they be willing to be vaccinated? Then there are those who mistrust any vaccine, and even more who mistrust that a vaccine rushed through development and testing will be safe.
1918 Pandemic Influenza Historic Timeline
Philadelphia didn't cancel a parade during a 1918 pandemic
How did the Spanish flu pandemic end and what lessons can we learn from a century ago?
In the 1918 flu pandemic, not wearing a mask was illegal in some parts of America. What changed?